Black Friday 2025: History, Evolution, and Future Trends

The history of Black Friday is a narrative far richer and more complex than the modern imagery of doorbuster deals and online shopping carts. Its journey begins not in a store, but with a financial panic: the “Black Friday” of 1869, when a gold market crash plunged the United States into economic turmoil. The term was later adopted, not by retailers, but by frustrated Philadelphia police in the 1950s to describe the chaotic post-Thanksgiving crowds. For decades, the event evolved in shopping malls, defined by early morning stampedes and loss-leading electronics. However, the true turning point in Black Friday history arrived with the digital revolution, which transformed it from a single day of physical frenzy into a global, month-long, mobile-first commerce event. As we examine Black Friday in 2025, its story offers a critical lens through which to understand a century and a half of retail innovation, consumer behavior shifts, and technological disruption, marking the culmination of its long evolution from a localized nuisance to a cornerstone of the global economic calendar.

Why Black Friday Still Matters in 2025

In 2025, the term “Black Friday” evokes a different image than it did a decade ago. The chaotic scenes of crowded store aisles and early morning doorbuster stampedes, once the event’s defining characteristic, have largely faded into memory. Yet, Black Friday’s economic and cultural significance has not diminished; it has transformed. It remains a critical barometer for consumer sentiment, a stress test for global supply chains, and a masterclass in modern retail strategy. Its journey from a localized Philadelphia term to a globalized, digital-first phenomenon offers a mirror to the evolution of commerce itself. Understanding the history of Black Friday is not merely an exercise in nostalgia; it is essential for comprehending the forces of consumer psychology, technological disruption, and economic change that continue to shape our world. The shift from malls to mobile represents one of the most significant retail migrations in history, and its epicenter has always been the Black Friday weekend.

When Did Black Friday Actually Start?

Black Friday Gold Panic 1869

The true history of Black Friday is layered, beginning not with retail profits, but with financial panic.

The First Black Friday (1869 Gold Market Crash)

The first recorded use of “Black Friday” in an economic context dates to September 24, 1869. On that day, a financial crisis erupted after two Wall Street financiers, Jay Gould and Jim Fisk, attempted to corner the nation’s gold market. Their scheme drove gold prices to astronomical heights before collapsing, triggering a stock market crash that bankrupted everyone from Wall Street barons to farmers. The day was dubbed “Black Friday” in the press, a term then commonly used to mark disastrous financial events. This historical footnote is crucial because it establishes that the phrase long predates its retail association and was originally steeped in negativity, not profit.

Philadelphia Police & the Retail Meaning (1950s–1960s)

The direct lineage to the modern shopping holiday begins in mid-20th century Philadelphia. City police used the term “Black Friday” to describe the chaotic day after Thanksgiving. Thousands of suburban shoppers and tourists would flood into the city for the annual Army-Navy football game held on Saturday, leading to overwhelming crowds, traffic gridlock, and a surge in shoplifting. Officers had to work long, grueling shifts and were denied leave, making it a day they dreaded. The term was used internally for years before it appeared in print. A 1966 public relations attempt by city officials to rebrand it “Big Friday” failed utterly. Instead, retailers, seeking to shed the negative connotations, later popularized a more favorable myth: that the name originated from the moment a store’s annual accounts moved “into the black” (profit) due to the day’s sales. This explanation, while apocryphal, was a successful marketing fiction that helped legitimize the event.

The Mall Era (1980s–1990s) and the Birth of Doorbusters

As suburban mall culture blossomed in the 1980s and 1990s, retailers nationwide formalized Black Friday into the kickoff of the holiday shopping season. This era gave rise to the “doorbuster” deal—a deeply discounted, limited-quantity item designed to lure massive crowds. Stores like Toys “R” Us, Walmart, and mall anchor stores such as Sears and JCPenney competed fiercely on price for televisions, video game consoles, and toys. These loss leaders were not primarily about profit but about driving foot traffic, with the assumption that consumers would buy full-margin items once inside. The ritual of scanning newspaper circulars, camping out in parking lots, and rushing through doors at dawn became an ingrained American tradition, fueled by aggressive television and print advertising.

From Mall Madness to Online Dominance (2000s–2010s)

The new millennium ushered in a force that would permanently alter the Black Friday landscape: e-commerce.

Early 2000s: Amazon Era

While Amazon was founded in 1994, its impact on Black Friday became pronounced in the early 2000s. The company began offering its own post-Thanksgiving deals, providing a compelling alternative to physical stores. The convenience of shopping from home, coupled with free shipping incentives for members, started to erode the necessity of braving the crowds. This period marked the beginning of a slow but steady power shift.

The Online Shopping Shift

A pivotal moment came in 2005, when the National Retail Federation coined the term “Cyber Monday” to describe the surge in online sales on the Monday after Thanksgiving weekend. Initially framed as a separate event for people shopping from work computers, it inadvertently accelerated the digitalization of the entire weekend. Major retailers began replicating their Black Friday deals online, often starting on Thanksgiving Day itself. This blurred the lines between the physical and digital events and gave rise to “Black Friday creep,” where deals started earlier and earlier in November.

Mobile Revolution and Digital Advertising

The advent of the smartphone, particularly following the iPhone’s 2007 release, was a game-changer. By the early 2010s, mobile shopping apps and optimized websites became the primary research and purchasing tools for millions. Consumers could now compare prices in real-time while standing in a physical store line, increasing price transparency and competition. Digital advertising shifted from email blasts to sophisticated social media retargeting and search engine marketing, allowing for personalized deal alerts that made the newspaper circular obsolete.

Black Friday Accross The World

The American retail holiday began exporting itself in the 2000s, with varying degrees of success and adaptation.

Expansion to Europe, UK, Canada, Australia

Driven by multinational retailers like Amazon, Apple, and Walmart-owned ASDA in the UK, Black Friday gained a foothold internationally. In the United Kingdom, it grew from a niche event to a major sales period. Canada embraced it as a way to curb cross-border shopping to the US. However, the adoption was not always seamless. In parts of Europe, the event faced cultural resistance and criticism for promoting overconsumption, and sales figures often failed to match the scale of the US event.

Competition with Singles’ Day & Boxing Day

Globally, Black Friday met formidable competitors. In China, Alibaba’s Singles’ Day (November 11) dwarfs Black Friday, setting record-breaking sales totals every year since its commercialization in 2009. Its model, centered on entertainment-driven live streams and gamified discounts, has influenced global e-commerce strategy. Meanwhile, in Commonwealth nations like the UK, Canada, and Australia, the traditional Boxing Day (December 26) sales remain a powerful, established retail tradition, creating a bifurcated promotional calendar.

Black Friday 2020–2024: Pandemic Acceleration & Digital Transformation

The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a forced accelerator, compressing a decade of retail evolution into two years.

COVID-19 Impact

The 2020 Black Friday season was a watershed moment. With physical stores closed or operating under capacity restrictions, retailers were forced to pivot entirely online. Curbside pickup, once a convenience, became a necessity. Amazon and other pure-play e-commerce giants saw unprecedented growth, while mall-based retailers scrambled to establish viable omnichannel services.

Supply Chain Turbulence

The pandemic-induced lockdowns and subsequent demand surge created historic supply chain bottlenecks. Port congestion, container shortages, and manufacturing delays led to widespread inventory shortages in 2021 and 2022. This forced retailers to start promotions earlier than ever in “Black November” campaigns to smooth out demand and manage logistics, a trend that has persisted.

BNPL, Inflation, and Pricing Debates

This period also saw the mainstream adoption of “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services like Affirm, Klarna, and Afterpay. These services, integrated at checkout, offered consumers a way to manage budgets amid rising inflation, effectively financing their Black Friday purchases. Simultaneously, consumers became more skeptical, using price-tracking tools to verify retailer claims of “deep discounts” and debunking myths about pre-Black Friday price inflation on certain products.

Black Friday 2025 What Changed This Year?

The 2025 event has solidified the trends of the past decade, marking the culmination of the digital transformation.

Online Sales Outpace Retail Stores

For the first time, despite a full return to pre-pandemic physical access, online sales across the entire Black Friday weekend have decisively and permanently surpassed in-store sales. The convenience, wider selection, and personalized deal-making of the digital realm have become the preferred channel for the majority of consumers.

Decline of Mall Crowds

The physical doorbuster crowd is a shadow of its former self. While destination malls with experiential offerings still draw visitors, the era of camping out for a limited-quantity television is largely over. Most doorbusters are now available in equal quantity online, and retailers have shifted focus to “click-and-collect” models.

AI-Driven Pricing & Personalization

Artificial intelligence now governs Black Friday pricing and marketing. Dynamic pricing algorithms adjust discounts in real-time based on inventory levels, competitor pricing, and individual user demand. Shoppers no longer see a universal flyer; they receive personalized deal recommendations via app notifications and social media feeds, curated by their own browsing and purchase history.

“Black November”: Extended Promotional Calendar

The single-day event has fully dissolved into a month-long promotional period. Major retailers now roll out “waves” of deals throughout November, reducing the pressure on a single weekend and allowing for better inventory and logistics management. The “Black Friday” label now functions as a thematic peak within a prolonged sales season.

Mobile-First Payments & BNPL in 2025

Mobile wallets and one-click checkout are the norm. BNPL has further entrenched itself, with options available at nearly every online and physical checkout, reflecting a fundamental shift in how consumers finance discretionary spending.

Sustainability + Anti-Haul Trends

A growing, vocal segment of consumers is rejecting Black Friday’s consumption ethos altogether. The “anti-haul” movement on social media, where influencers discourage impulsive buying, and the promotion of “Buy Nothing Day” have gained traction. In response, many brands now highlight sustainability, product durability, and circular economy models like recycling programs to align with these shifting values.

Economic Impact of Black Friday 2025

The 2025 event provides clear data on the new state of retail.

Sales Totals vs Previous Years

While overall sales totals continue to show modest nominal growth year-over-year, this figure is heavily influenced by inflation and the extended sales period. When adjusted for inflation and spread across November, the per-day spending intensity has stabilized.

Consumer Behavior Metrics

Key metrics now emphasize the digital experience: Average Order Value (AOV) for online carts, cart abandonment rates, and mobile conversion rates are the new KPIs, replacing foot traffic counts. Data shows a consumer who is more deliberate, better researched, and less impulsive than in the peak mall era.

Price Elasticity & Discount Depth

The depth of “true” discounts varies significantly by category. Electronics and appliances still see the most substantial markdowns, while apparel and home goods discounts are often more superficial. Consumers have access to more price history data, making them more discerning and less easily swayed by generic “sale” labels.

Labor, Safety & Retail Worker Conditions

The nature of the risks and demands on retail workers has evolved.

Worker Strikes, Overtime, Union Actions

The focus of labor action has shifted from protesting early Thanksgiving hours to broader demands for higher wages, better benefits, and consistent scheduling. A wave of unionization efforts at major retailers like Starbucks and Amazon has brought renewed attention to labor conditions during the high-stress holiday season.

Stampedes vs Modern Crowd Control

Tragic incidents like the 2008 Walmart stampede that resulted in the death of an employee in New York led to widespread safety reforms. Physical doorbusters for high-demand items are now managed through virtual queues and lottery systems, rendering the dangerous stampedes a relic of the past.

The Shift from Physical Chaos to Digital Queues

The physical strain on workers has been partially replaced by the digital strain of fulfilling omnichannel orders. The pressure has moved to warehouse workers picking online orders and store associates managing endless streams of curbside pickups and returns.

Fraud, Scams & Consumer Risk in 2025

The primary risks for shoppers are now digital.

Fake Deals, Phishing Emails, Fraudulent Sites

Cybercriminals exploit the shopping frenzy with sophisticated phishing emails impersonating major retailers, fake retail websites with too-good-to-be-true deals, and fraudulent social media advertisements. The FBI and FTC routinely issue warnings about these tactics during the holiday season.

Chargebacks & Consumer Protection

The rise in BNPL usage and online transactions has led to complexities in fraud disputes and chargebacks. Consumers are advised to use credit cards (which offer stronger fraud protection than debit cards) and to be wary of making purchases on unsecured websites.

Safe Shopping Guidance

Standard guidance for 2025 includes: verifying website URLs, using a password manager, enabling two-factor authentication, monitoring bank statements closely, and understanding the specific terms and conditions of BNPL agreements.

What Black Friday 2025 Tells Us About the Future

The 2025 event is not an endpoint but a clear indicator of future directions.

The End of Traditional Doorbusters

The concept of a limited-quantity, in-only physical item to draw a crowd is effectively dead. Its successor is the “lightning deal” or limited-time online flash sale, which creates digital urgency without physical risk.

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond

We can anticipate the further rise of social commerce, where purchases are completed within platforms like TikTok Shop and Instagram; AI-powered personal shoppers that curate entire gift lists; and augmented reality (AR) integrations for trying products virtually before buying.

The Rise of AI, Social Commerce, and Dynamic Pricing

The core of Black Friday will continue to be a data-driven event. AI will optimize everything from supply chain forecasting to hyper-personalized advertising. Dynamic pricing will become so fluid that no two shoppers may see the same price for the same item, based on their perceived willingness to pay. The event will become less of a collective ritual and more of a personalized, algorithmically-managed shopping experience.

In conclusion, the history of Black Friday is a story of continuous adaptation. From a financial crash and a police officer’s complaint to mall madness and now to a mobile-dominated, AI-powered global phenomenon, it has consistently mirrored the broader economic and technological currents of its time. In 2025, it remains a powerful economic force, but its form has evolved into something more diffuse, more personalized, and more integrated into the digital fabric of our daily lives. Its future will be written not in parking lots at dawn, but in the complex interplay of data, algorithms, and evolving consumer values.

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